Nov. 27th, 2018

Within the past few days, the US government released a comprehensive report predicting that, by the end of the century, climate change would cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars each year. Trump responded to the report by saying, "I don't believe it." His behavior is reminiscent of that of another leader of the recent past, from a different country, who rejected the views of the mainstream scientific community.



I will quote an excerpt from We Are All the Same: A Story of a Boy's Courage and a Mother's Love by Jim Wooten, in reference to the former President of South Africa, Thabo Mbeki:



When he finally did address the subject, he immediately ignited a firestorm of controversy. On one occasion he declared publicly that the virus HIV did not cause AIDS. In other remarks he cast doubt on the very existence of the virus. In still another venue, he said that perhaps it did exist but no one was certain, and even if it did, no one was sure it was the cause of AIDS. The real causes, he insisted, were poverty and an unhealthy diet.

Doctors, scientists, epidemiologists, microbiologists, AIDS activists, and editorial writers both in South Africa and in countries beyond its borders responded furiously. Some of their most prominent leaders demanded a meeting with the president, an opportunity to discuss his views, to compare them with the findings of the world's medical-research community, to demonstrate to him the error of his ways. All such entreaties were rejected. There would be no meeting. The president had made up his mind, and there he would stand. He knew what he knew. He was castigated, criticized, and lampooned--but his heels were firmly dug in, and he would not be moved.


Mbeki wasn't sure whether HIV exists and thought that, if it did, then no one was really sure whether it causes AIDS, despite the scientific consensus that it does. Trump isn't sure whether the climate is changing and thinks that, if it is, then no one is really sure whether the change is caused by humans, despite the scientific consensus that it is. Mbeki alleged that an "omnipotent apparatus" was using AIDS to commit genocide against Africans. Trump has accused climate scientists of having a political agenda and once tweeted that the concept of global warming is a Chinese plot to make the U.S. less competitive. Mbeki refused offers from pharmaceutical companies to make drugs available in South Africa without charge. Trump is rolling back efforts to fight climate change.



People who are not scientists, yet feel that climate scientists are wrong and/or are politically motivated would do well to keep in mind that Mbeki felt similarly confident that mainstream scientists were wrong in linking AIDS to HIV, with disastrous consequences for the people of South Africa. If one is a conservative, then that would suggest following the precautionary principle--if there is a scientific consensus that action is needed, then taking the action makes sense as a precaution.

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